RaboResearch: Global Pork Consumption to Increase in Q4 2024
Pork consumption continues to improve on the back of better economic conditions. Lower energy prices are slowing inflation.
Global pig farmers remain cautious about rebuilding their herds despite improving margins, due to ongoing trade, disease and demand uncertainties, according to a new RaboResearch report. Transport challenges and potential impacts from La Niña further complicate the market, while pork consumption is trending positively.
The global sow herd remains stable through Q3 2024, with little sign of growth despite improved margins in some regions. Christine McCracken, RaboResearch’s Senior Meat Analyst, predicts seasonal production will increase as temperatures cool and fresh corn supplies are plentiful, although pig health challenges typically increase during this period.
Pig herd growth in selected countries 2014 – 2024
Biosecurity remains a top priority due to ongoing disease risks
Outbreaks in the Republic of Korea, Russia and the EU have led to production declines in the second half of 2024, limiting herd rebuilding despite effective biosecurity measures. Easing disease pressure in China will support herd growth in 2025. Production is also expected to increase slightly in Brazil, the US and southern EU countries.
The impact of La Niña on feed production and prices
Global feed stocks are near multi-year highs and pig production costs are falling in most regions. However, dry weather in South America and Asia means feed cost advantages are not evenly distributed. In 2024, lower corn and soybean meal prices have squeezed margins in some regions, while tighter wheat supplies have pushed wheat prices higher in others. McCracken warned that even a mild La Niña would create regional disparities.
A large harvest in North America has increased stockpiles, but the EU and Asia are short. “With global stocks rising, another year of moderate growth costs is expected for most major pork producers in 2024/25,” McCracken said.
Concerns about localized production shortfalls due to La Niña are focused on South and Central Asia, southern South America, northern Mexico and East Asia. Dry weather in Brazil has delayed soybean plantings and could reduce the area of safrinha corn (second crop) in 2025.
Positive trends in pork consumption
Pork consumption continues to improve thanks to the better economic situation. Lower energy prices are slowing inflation, although higher food and service prices are weighing on consumers. Increased seasonal demand and highly competitive meat prices will support favorable consumption in Q4/2024.
Consumer confidence remains a challenge in many markets due to ongoing economic difficulties. Consumption trends will impact prices, investment decisions and global trade.
(Source: Vinanet/VITIC/thepigsite)
